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el sites were applied in the past 3 years (except for the Central Market site) as occupancy in the decentralized districts only showed significant improvements since 2H10. Table 3: Commercial Land Application List FY11/12 Lot number Projects Uses Commercial Business Business Commercial Business Commercial Commercial Commercial Office Business Commercial Commercial Site Area (sf) 52,506 46,252 40,849 17,857 51,107 147,498 107,919 54,788 76,241 71,042 69,965 Plot Ratio (X) 12.00 12.00 12.00 0.75 9.50 4.00 5.00 3.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 GFA (sf) 630,076 555,030 490,188 13,396 485,516 589,991 539,594 164,365 195,688 686,166 639,376 629,688 5,619,073
Trader R Foreign l Zhishu -searchv Www r Service f Trader o Service Www Y Zhishu 0 Trader 1 Exchange isearcht Exchange NsearchI Foreign 1 Service 5 Trader Csearcha Foreign wosearchL Trader nsearch Exchange o Www d Foreign 75ppp.comwnsearchTngsearchNsearchILsearch6search1 Foreign searchu Trader csearchio Foreign f Foreign W Exchange n searchhiu R Foreign a Exchange n Exchange Lsearchm Exchange Lesearch S Exchange re Service , Exchange K Exchange w75ppp.comosearchn Foreign Basearch Foreign KsearchL Zhishu 3 Zhishu 3searchC Zhishu e Exchange nsearch Service ipSsearchre Zhishu t Foreign Zhishu owl75ppp.como Exchange B Foreign ysearchL Service tsearch17search n Trader D Service 275ppp.com5 Www Tsearchi Exchange M75ppp.comnHo Trader , Www S Exchange isearchKngsearchYsearchTsearch 45search Service usearchct Foreign on of F Www Yisearch Www tre Service t Exchange a75ppp.comd Exchange W Service n Service Y Exchange psearchS Service rsearche Wsearchst, Www T Exchange nsearch Tau, Yu Exchange nsearchLsearchngsearchKIL 11111 Junction of Hung Luen Road and Kin Wan Street, Hung Hom Bay Reclamation, Kowloon TCTL 11 Area 3A, Tung Chung, Lantau STTL 482 Site 11, Area 77, Ma On Shan, Sha Tin IL 8920 Ex-Government Supplies Depot, Oil Street, North Point New sites NKIL 6269* Junction of Wai Yip Street, Shun Yip Street and Hoi Bun Road, Kwun Tong NKIL 6314* Junction of Kai Cheung Road and Wang Kwong Road, Kowloon Bay TSWTL 26 Area 108A, Tin Shui Wai Total office / retail land Source: Lands Department, HKSAR Gov’t, J.P. Morgan estimates. *Government imitated auctions, ready from April 2011.
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Lucia Kwong, CFA (852) 2800-8526 lucia.yk.kwong@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 25 February 2011
Table 4: Residential Land Application List FY11/12 Lot No. Projects Location Type Site Area (sf) Plot Ratio (X) 0.40 1.00 0.90 0.90 2.10 0.75 0.40 0.20 0.40 1.22 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.03 0.40 0.40 4.16 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.54 1.50 1.50 0.40 1.00 1.20 1.20 3.86 7.50 8.90 1.13 Residenti al GFA (sf) 101,526 65,401 41,172 12,962 231,672 4,966 32,787 3,731 10,264 36,780 9,223 14,372 36,845 41,979 49,406 31,904 32,464 1,031,461 50,375 96,068 88,479 142,385 130,458 318,073 13,662 120,470 45,854 26,479 2,821,220 435,292 153,515 237,021 180,700 1,006,528 Newly added sites KIL 11227 Junction of Sheung Lok Street and Sheung Shing Street, former Homantin Estate Redevelopment Ph 2 and 7 sites Junction of Fat Kwong Street and Sheung Foo Street, former Homantin Estate Redevelopment Ph 3 site Kwun Fat Street, Siu Lam Ex-Perowne Barracks North site, Area 48, Castle Peak Road Homantin R2 223,997 5.00 1,119,984 750 Unit size (sf) 2,000 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 2,000 2,000 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 900 1,100 2,000 2,000 750 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 2,000 1,100 1,100 1,100 750 650 950 1,100 Est. No. of units Estimated Earliest Site Available Date Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 Apr 11
Rolled-over sites Lot 2086 in DD 105 Lot 2129 in DD 121 RBL 1165 RBL 1168 RBL 1190 StIL 91 Lot 1588 in DD 243 Lot 1613 in DD 222 Lot 1282 in DD 253 NKIL 6498 Lot 673 in DD Peng Chau Lot 674 in DD Peng Chau Lot 676 in DD Peng Chau Lot 678 in DD Peng Chau Lot 726 in DD 4 Lot 724 in DD 332 Lot 726 in DD 332 STTL 525 STTL 562 STTL 563 STTL 564 STTL 565 STTL 566 STTL 567 TMTL 430 Lot 4309 in DD 124 TMTL 434 TMTL 490
Ngau Tam Mei, off San Tam Road Ping Kwai Road, Ping Shan Near 110 Repulse Bay Road Near 35 South Bay Road 8-12 Deep Water Bay Drive, Shouson Hill Hoi Fung Path Pik Sha Road, Silverstrand, Clear Water Bay Kap Pin Long Junction of Pak Shek Wo San Tsuen Road and Clear Water Bay Road 62 Begonia Road, Yau Yat Chuen Tong Tung Wan, Peng Chau (Site A) Tung Wan, Peng Chau (Site B) Peng Chau Lot 678 in DD Peng Chau Mui Wo Cheung Sha Site 406, Lantau Cheung Sha Site 407, Lantau Shatin Area 56A, Kau To (Site A) Shatin Area 56A, Kau To (Site B5) Shatin Area 56A, Kau To (Site B6) Shatin Area 56A, Kau To (Site B7) Shatin Area 56A, Kau To (Site B1) Shatin Area 56A, Kau To (Site B2) Shatin Area 56A, Kau To (Site B3&4) Area 52, Fu Tei, Tuen Mun Tan Kwai Tsuen, Hung Shui Kiu, Area 55, So Kwun Wat Castle Peak Road, Tai Lam Chung
Yuen Long Yuen Long Southern Southern South Southern Sai Kung Sai Kung Sai Kung Shek Kip Mei Peng Chau Peng Chau Peng Chau Peng Chau Lantau Lantau Lantau Shatin Shatin Shatin Shatin Shatin Shatin Shatin Tuen Mun Yuen Long Tuen Mun Tuen Mun Mid Level Hung Hom North Point Mid Level
R4 R3 R3 R3 R3 R3 R4 R4 R3 R3 R3 R3 R3 R/C R3 R4 R4 R2 R3 R3 R3 R3 R3 R3 R4 R3 R3 R3 R2 R1 R/C R3
252,736 65,401 45,747 14,402 110,319 6,620 81,967 18,654 25,661 30,247 12,292 19,160 49,126 55,972 24,326 79,760 81,160 248,172 50,375 64,045 58,986 92,462 86,972 212,049 34,154 120,470 38,212 22,066 2,001,515 112,892 20,473 84,895 160,382
51 59 37 12 211 5 16 2 9 33 8 13 33 47 45 16 16 1,375 46 87 80 129 119 289 7 110 42 24 2,922 580 236 249 164 1,230 1,493
Government-initiated land auctions IL 8949 21, 23 and 25 Borrett Road, MidLevels West KIL 11184 Ex-Ko Shan Road Customs & Excise Service Married Quarters IL 8920 Ex-Government Supplies Depot, Oil Street IL 8963 Former Lingnan College Site, Stubbs Road
Jul 11
KIL 11228 TMTL 436 TMTL 423
Homantin Tuen Mun Tuen Mun
R2 R4 R3
77,403 96,660 720,858
4.00 0.40 1.50
309,613 38,664 1,081,288
750 2,000 1,100
413 19 983
Jul 11 Aug 11 Oct 11
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Lucia Kwong, CFA (852) 2800-8526 lucia.yk.kwong@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 25 February 2011
Lot No.
Projects
Location
Type
Site Area (sf) 144,236 46,715 54,142 88,910 32,830 315,382 401,493 139,931 161,459 187,292 20,990 2,712,298
Plot Ratio (X) 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.50 7.00 5.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.40
Residenti al GFA (sf) 793,299 233,577 270,712 489,004 229,809 1,576,911 602,240 209,896 242,188 280,938 8,396 7,486,518
Unit size (sf) 750 750 750 750 650 800 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 2,000
Est. No. of units 1,058 311 361 652 354 1,971 547 191 220 255 4 8,833
TKOTL 113 TKOTL 114 TKOTL 115 TKOTL 119 AplIL 135 IL 9027 TKOTL 95 TKOTL 117 TKOTL 118 STTL 574 TMTL 495
Tseung Kwan O Area 66A Tseung Kwan O Area 66C1 Tseung Kwan O Area 66D1 Tseung Kwan O Area 66B2 Junction of Ap Lei Chau Drive and Ap Lei Chau Praya Road Eastern part of ex-North Point Estate Tseung Kwan O Area 68A Tseung Kwan O Area 66C2 Tseung Kwan O Area 66D2 Lok Wo Sha So Kwun Wat, near Grandview Terrace
Tseung Kwan O Tseung Kwan O Tseung Kwan O Tseung Kwan O Ap Lei Chau North Point Tseung Kwan O Tseung Kwan O Tseung Kwan O Ma On Shan Tuen Mun
R2 R2 R2 R2 R1 R/C R3 R3 R3 R3 R4
Estimated Earliest Site Available Date Oct 11 Oct 11 Oct 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 12
Government-initiated land tender HHIL 556 5-23 Lee Kung Street, Hung Hom HHIL 555 Junction of Bulkeley Street and Gillies Avenue South Tung Chung Area 55A Ex Tai Wo Hau industrial estate Total GFA available in FY11/12 Source: Lands Department, HKSAR Gov't, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Hung Hom Hung Hom Tung Chung Tsuen Wan
R1 R1 R1 R/C
13,993 6,189 300,000 150,000 470,182 5,183,996
9.00 9.00 5.00 5.00
125,937 55,703 1,500,000 750,000 2,431,640 13,745,906
800 800 800 800
157 70 1,875 938 3,040 16,026
Apr 11 Apr 11
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Lucia Kwong, CFA (852) 2800-8526 lucia.yk.kwong@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 25 February 2011
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] J.P. Morgan Cazenove’s UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analyst’s team’s coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe.
Coverage Universe: Lucia Kwong, CFA: Agile Property Holdings Ltd (3383.HK), Beijing Capital Land (2868.HK), Cheung Kong Holdings (0001.HK), China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK), China Resources Land (1109.HK), China Vanke Company (200002.SZ), Franshion Properties (China) Ltd. (0817.HK), Glorious Property (0845.HK), Greentown China Holdings (3900.HK), Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777.HK), Henderson Land Development (0012.HK), Shanghai Forte Land (2337.HK), Shimao Property Holdings (0813.HK), Shui On Land Ltd (0272.HK), Sino-Ocean Land (3377.HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016.HK) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of December 31, 2010 Overweight (buy) 46% 53% 43% 71% Neutral (hold) 42% 50% 49% 63% Underweight (sell) 12% 38% 8% 59%
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage IB clients* JPMS Equity Research Coverage IB clients*
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.
Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMS, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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Lucia Kwong, CFA (852) 2800-8526 lucia.yk.kwong@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 25 February 2011
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