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Thread: 如何解读“期货头寸报告(COT报告)”?

  1. #1
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    如何解读“期货头寸报告(COT报告)”?

    期货头寸报告(Commitments of Traders,以下简称COT报告)是由美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)于美东时间每周五下午3:30(北京时间周六早上3:30)公布,它反映的是期货交易所在周二时的持仓头寸情况。

    COT报告的目的是为了提高市场的透明度,为了防止某个交易商的头寸过大而操纵市场,CFTC规定期货交易所的结算会员和期货经纪商每天必须向其提交持仓报告。而COT报告中统计的是期货或期权持仓数量达到或超过CFTC规定报告水平的20个或更多的交易者的持仓头寸情况。

    COT报告中将持仓头寸分为两大类,分别是由报告持仓头寸(reportable positions)和非报告持仓头寸(nonreportable positions)。持仓头寸达到或超过CFTC限定水平的交易商归类为报告持仓头寸中,而非报告持仓头寸中统计的是一些小的投机商的头寸。
    而报告持仓头寸的交易商分为商业交易商(commercial)和非商业交易商(non-commercial)两类。商业交易商主要是由银行和跨国公司组成,他们参与期货市场的目的是为了对冲如汇率、利率和证券等相关的风险。非商业交易商则是典型投机商,主要由基金和专业交易机构组成。

    在commercial、non-commercial和nonreportable positions三种类型中我们要关注的是non-commercial也就是非商业头寸情况,因为商业头寸参与市场的目的是为了对冲,短期的价格波动不会使他们调整头寸;而非商业头寸的目的则是为了投机,他们的头寸数量随时会根据市场的波动而变化,他们的头寸调整也会随时影响市场的走势;而nonreportable positions是一些小的投机商,一般很难引起市场的大的波动。

    传统的COT报告是根据不同的交易所来编制的,我们关注的是芝加哥商业交易所(Chicago Mercantile Exchange)的外汇期货、纽约商品交易所(Commodity Exchange Incorporated)的黄金和白银期货,以及洲际交易所(ICE)的原油期货和纽约商业交易所(NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)的原油期货。

    下面为CFTC的COT报告网站链接:
    Commitments of Traders - CFTC
    Last edited by Sawer at FXCM; 06-22-2011 at 02:57 AM.

  2. #2
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    下图为本月14号CFTC公布的英镑的COT报告:

    图中的名词解释如下:
    Open interest: 持仓头寸数量
    Reportable positions: 报告持仓头寸
    Nonreportable positions: 非报告持仓头寸
    Non-Commercial: 非商业头寸
    Commercial: 商业头寸
    Long: 买进的头寸
    Short: 卖出的头寸
    Spreading: 跨期套利头寸,衡量每类市场参与者的跨期套利头寸。举个例子,比如一个市场参与者同时持有2000张多头和1500张空头,那么500张会计入买进的头寸中,而1500张会计入跨期套利的头寸中。
    Changes in Commitments from: June 7, 2011: 相比6月7号的报告的变化 。
    Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader: 每类交易商的持仓头寸与总的持头寸的比值。
    Number of Traders in Each Category: 每个类别的交易者的数量

    对于主要的外汇品种的COT报告,在CFTC公布后,dailyfx中文网会对其进行整理统计并发布在网站中,链接如下:
    期货变化 - DailyFX财经网-外汇牌价-汇率-即时报价-汇市走势分析
    Last edited by Sawer at FXCM; 06-22-2011 at 02:24 AM.

  3. #3
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    我们在做的外汇、黄金和白银是现货交易,跟期货市场有什么关系呢?

    现货市场和期货市场是紧密联系并且是联动的,一旦现货和期货出现偏离,便会出现套利机会,而这种机会马上便会被投机者填补,之后两者便又恢复到联动的关系。


    COT报告反映的是周二收盘时的持仓情况,但要等到周五时才公布,那还有价值吗?

    答案是肯定的,趋势形成后并不会马上就消失,长期的趋势甚至可以延续几年。

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